Impact of Precipitation Variability on the Water Balance of Coastal Aquifers on the Southern Coast of Artemisa and Mayabeque, Cuba
Keywords:
climate variability, drought index, hydrogeology, infiltration, overexploitation, precipitation, subaquifersAbstract
The assessment of groundwater availability and dynamics in coastal karst regions requires an integrated analysis of climate variability and the hydrogeological response of the aquifer system. This study analyzes precipitation behavior and its impact on the water balance of the sub-aquifers on the southern coast of Artemisa and Mayabeque provinces, Cuba, during the 2009-2024 period. By applying homogeneity tests (t-Student, Cramer, Fischer) and consistency analysis (double-mass curves) to 46 rain gauge stations, the historical database was validated and completed. Meteorological drought indices (PPN, SPI, IRS) were determined by applying Runs Theory, and the groundwater balance was quantified by contrasting direct infiltration recharge with extraction volumes. The results reveal a critical dichotomy: while the HS-1 Corojal and HS-3 Artemisa-Quivicán sub-aquifers present surplus annual balances, the HS-4 Batabanó sub-aquifer demonstrates a condition of chronic and sustained water deficit, with negative balances throughout the entire analyzed series. It is concluded that the structural overexploitation of HS- 4, exacerbated by the occurrence of intense droughts such as that recorded in 2019, compromises the sustainability of reserves and constitutes a preponderant risk factor for the intensification of marine intrusion processes on the southern coastline.
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